At 15:00 UTC on Nov 3, 2023, ada price usd real-time quote stood at $0.2512 (CoinGecko statistics). Over the last 24 hours, it reached a peak of $0.2579 and a trough of $0.2438, with an amplitude of 5.8%. Volatility (30-day annualized standard deviation) stood at 62%, outmatching that of Bitcoin (45%) and Ethereum (53%). Its market capitalization stands at about 8.8 billion US dollars, and it is ranked 8th in the cryptocurrency market. The 24-hour trading volume stands at 240 million US dollars, with the Binance ADA/USDT trading pair taking 41.2% of that (approximately 98.8 million US dollars). Its liquidity depth (Order Book) shows that The order book volume at approximately $0.25 was 1.2 million ADA (approx. $300,000) with a risk of slippage of under 0.3%. If an investor sells 10,000 ADA at the current time, he must pay a platform fee (such as Kraken 0.26%) of approximately 6.5 US dollars, and he gets actually approximately 2,505.5 US dollars in USD.
Macroeconomic factors have a strong impact on the short-term trend of ada price usd. After the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes on November 2nd, the US Dollar index (DXY) dropped to 106.1, but the 10-year US Treasury bond yield remained at 4.66%, keeping a lid on the valuation of risky assets. Data shows the 30-day correlation coefficient between ADA and the Nasdaq 100 Index is 0.38. When tech stocks drop by 5%, ADA can be predicted to drop by 1.9% respectively. On-chain data-wise, the active addresses on Cardano’s chain fell 7% this week (from an average of 173,000 to 161,000 per day), but the staked volume climbed to 22.9 billion ADA (64.3% of the circulating volume) with an annualized yield of 3.8%, which to some extent alleviated the selling pressure in the market. For instance, on October 30th, ADA dropped 4.2% within a day due to the yield of US Treasuries moving higher. However, the staking reward mechanism reduced the cost for long-term holders by 0.8%.
Technical indicators show that the RSI (14th day) of the current ada price usd is 49.5, which is close to the neutral zone, while the MACD histogram is decreasing below the zero axis, indicating decreasing downward momentum. The middle Bollinger Band (20-day moving average) is $0.247. The short-term uptrend may add another 8%-10% if price explodes above $0.26 (upper Bollinger band). In the derivatives markets, data from Deribit shows that open interest in ADA call options expiring in late November (strike price of $0.28) was 22% higher, while implied volatility spiked to 85%, indicating some traders are betting on a rebound. However, the funding rate of the perpetual contract of -0.012% indicates that short positions are dominant. One should be careful about the margin call risk due to the aggravation of the long-short game (for example, a 5% price drop can result in a compulsory liquidation of 120 million US dollars).
The historical analogy is promising of dangers. In June 2023, the SEC prosecuted Binance for listing ADA as an “unregistered security”, and its price fell by 22% within 24 hours. If the same regulatory shock happens again (probability models suggest a 12% likelihood of occurrence in November), the price can go below the $0.23 support level. In contrast, the latest progress of the Cardano ecosystem might be positive: Hydra scalability solution has raised the TPS to 1,000, on-chain DEX Minswap’s monthly trading volume has surpassed 150 million US dollars (40% month-on-month increase), and the TVL of DeFi protocols has reached 520 million US dollars (8.3% month-on-month increase). With the release of the smart contract optimization tool at the Cardano Summit on November 18th, technical buying can push the ada price usd back to $0.28-$0.30.
Investors’ decisions need to weigh costs and cycles. If 0.25 US dollars are exchanged for USD, compared to 0.17 US dollars at the beginning of 2023, early holders still earned 47.1%. However, if one had invested at the all-time high of $3.10 in September 2021, the rate of loss would have been 91.9%. For short-term traders, with the current volatility, the Sharpe Ratio of holding ADA is -0.18 (calculated with a risk-free interest rate of 5.3%), which is inferior to US dollar cash. Long-term investors can afford to wait for Bitcoin’s halving cycle in 2024. In the six months following the previous three halvings, ADA has risen by an average of 320%. It is recommended to leave a stop-loss order at $0.24 through TradingView or take an option combination (e.g., buying a put order at $0.25 and selling a call order at $0.28) to hedge risks.